The Carbon-Climate Cleavage and American Politics

A talk with Thomas Oatley about America’s
dual economy and the climate crisis intersecting to shape American politics.
Carbon-intensive industries in the interior are exposed to the short-run costs
of decarbonization but insulated from the climate crisis. In contrast,
knowledge-intensive industries along the coasts are directly exposed to the
climate crisis but largely immune to the costs of decarbonization. This
interaction between the dual economy and the climate crisis has generated a new
axis of political conflict in which climate change policy is a focal point. Using
data on economic geography, political attitudes on climate change policy, and
support for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, Oatley describes the
dual economy and climate crisis intersection and show the extent to which this
cleavage aligns with support Trump and opposition to climate change policy.

Thomas
Oatley holds the Corasaniti-Zondorak Chair of International Relations at Tulane
University.